Purpose
To test whether land use and other features of places are associated with the spatial concentration of gun violence or its growth during epidemic periods.
Methods
The study uses shooting data from six major cities over a four-year period (2018–2021). Regression models with spatial lags estimate whether the land use of places is associated with differences in shooting rates and the surge in shootings that occurred in 2020–2021.
Results
Mixed-land use is associated with lower rates of shootings overall, but land use has little relationship with the surge in shootings in 2020–2021. The most disadvantaged areas consistently have higher rates of shootings. The change in shooting rates is multiplicative, such that areas of concentrated disadvantage faced the highest absolute rate change in shootings in 2020–2021.
Conclusions
This study underscores the importance of social disadvantage in explaining the enduring and episodic rates of gun violence.