Objectives

This paper examines the extent to which hotspots of shooting violence changed following the emergence of COVID-19.

Methods

This analysis uses Andresenʼs Spatial Point Pattern test on 1500 by 1500 foot grid cells, correcting for multiple comparisons, on a 10-year sample of geocoded shooting data from Buffalo New York.

Results

This work finds zero micro-grid cells are not statistically different from pre to post COVID stay at home orders and instead that the observed rise in shootings in the sample appears to be a consistent proportional increase across the city.

Conclusions

These findings provide law enforcement with useful information about how to respond to the recent rise in shooting violence, but additional work is needed to better understand what, among a number of competing theories, is driving the increase.