Do concealed gun permits deter crime? Dynamic insights from state panel data

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Do concealed gun permits deter crime? Dynamic insights from state panel data

Category: Concealed Carry, Crime, Firearm Policies|Journal: Working Paper (full text)|Author: M McElroy, P Wang|Year: 2018

Does the liberal permitting of concealed handguns deter violent crime? We propose a dynamic estimator that addresses the time-varying effects estimated by differences-in-differences estimators and reconcile contradictory results in the literature. Our estimator accounts for heterogeneous responses to concealed carry law passages across three subpopulations created by these policy changes. We estimate all three responses to be significant and the net effect at the state level evolves over time as a subpopulation-weighted average of the three. Our estimates suggest that a counterfactual policy passing concealed carry laws in all states in 2010 would increase overall violent crimes by over 4,000, or up to 5% in certain states.

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