Report: Concealed Carry Literature Review
- A naïve count analysis of academic studies
from 1995-2018 indicates an evenly split literature on whether RTC Laws reduce,
increase, or have no effect on crime.
- Focusing on modern studies (post 2005)
with a national scope reveals that a majority find that RTC Laws increase
- There are an insufficient number of
defensive gun uses for RTC laws to reduce crime through direct deterrence.
- Indirect deterrence is highly implausible
due to a lack of general knowledge about the distribution of permit holders.
- There are an insufficient number of permit
holder crimes for RTC laws to increase crime through direct escalation.
- An increase in crime through indirect
escalation is highly likely given the more than 200,000 gun thefts every year.
- The modern academic literature and
investigation of causal pathways both reinforce the conclusion that RTC laws
likely increase crime, or at best have no net beneficial effect.
White Paper: Stand Your Ground Laws
A majority of states now have some form of Stand Your Ground Law
- The most consistent finding of academic studies is that Stand Your Ground laws increase homicides
- The overwhelming majority of academic studies find no deterrence effect on crime.
- Stand Your Ground laws exacerbate racial discrepancies in whether a homicide is considered justifiable.
- Most defendants in Stand Your Ground cases had previous criminal records, and many had been previously accused of violent crimes.
- Most defendants could have safely retreated from the conflict without utilizing lethal force.
White Paper: Guns and Women
- In the United States in 2016, 5,664 female firearm deaths were recorded – 3,291 suicides and 2,202 homicides. (The remainder were undetermined, unintentional, or legal intervention.)
- Access to firearms increases the risk of being a homicide victim more for women than men.
- The increased homicide risk for women is largely a product of intimate partner homicides.
- A gun in the home quintuples the risk of domestic violence turning lethal.
- A gun in the home increases the severity of nonfatal domestic violence.
- Domestic violence restraining orders that temporarily prohibit gun ownership by the aggressor significantly reduce overall intimate partner homicide.
White Paper: Gun Ownership and Homicide
- There were 14,415 firearm homicides in the US in 2016
- Firearms make violent crime more lethal
- The US has significantly higher rates of homicide than other developed nations
- High gun ownership states have significantly higher firearm and overall homicide rates
- The presence of firearms increases the non-stranger homicide rate, but not the stranger homicide rate
- Police officers are at greater danger of homicide in states with higher gun ownership
White Paper: The Frequency of Defensive Gun Use
- There are 3 major estimates of Defensive Gun Use (DGU) frequency per year:
- Gary Kleck and private surveys: approximately 2.5 million.
- National Crime Victimization Survey: approximately 100,000.
- Gun Violence Archive (based on police and media reports): less than 2,000.
- Surveys of rare events such as DGUs exaggerate their frequency due to false positives.
- While methodologically better, the NCVS estimate also suffers from false positives and is therefore likely an overestimate as well.
- Several of the crime predictions from Kleck’s survey are mathematically impossible, such as DGUs during burglaries and criminals being shot.
- Comprehensive empirical data (such as GVA’s) trumps survey data when they provide conflicting results.
White Paper: Gun Laws and Suicide
- Aside from buybacks and laws that directly reduce gun ownership, firearm laws can only have an effect on the suicide rate of populations not previously exposed to firearms.
- Most firearm laws are not passed with reducing suicides as their primary intent, thereby attenuating any relationship between said laws and suicide reduction.
- Laws passed in Israel and Switzerland designed to limit suicides among soldiers by reducing gun access have seen significant results among the target population.
- States with stricter gun laws in the US, particularly Permit-to-Purchase laws, see significantly lower rates of overall suicide, with little evidence of a substitution effect from firearms to other means.
- Australia’s gun buyback and suite of other reforms in 1996 resulted in a significant reduction in suicides according to multiple studies.
White Paper: Gun Ownership and Suicide
- There were 22,938 firearm suicides in the US in 2016
- Firearms are the most lethal significant means of suicide with an 82.5% fatality rate, versus a fatality rate of 4% for all suicide attempts.
- Lethality matters, as approximately 90% of individuals don’t attempt suicide again.
- Even with a 100% substitution rate for suicide attempts (switching from firearms to an alternative means), the completed suicide rate would still go down as firearms are more lethal.
- Attempting suicide is usually an impulsive decision (70% decide within an hour).
- Firearm availability is the only plausible factor to explain the significant difference in suicide rates.